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The projection of a mild winter in Europe is spurring hopes that Germany can avert a severe gas shortage in the next months. The country鈥檚 meteorological service DWD presented its winter forecast in with the national grid agency BNetzA. 鈥淕ermany鈥檚 heating energy consumption is mainly determined by outside temperatures,鈥� the BNetzA said. Almost half of German homes are heated with natural gas. According to DWD calculations, the winter in 2022/2023 could be among the warmest since 1991, with an average temperature of at least 2 degrees Celsius, more than 0.5掳C above the reference period鈥檚 average. French and British counterparts have made similar projections like those from DWD. 鈥淭he winter prognosis is good news for all energy consumers,鈥� DWD's Tobias Fuchs said. BNetzA head Klaus M眉ller said a comparatively mild winter could help saving at least 20 percent of heating gas in the next months. 鈥淭hanks to full gas storages, we have a running start but must not slow down now. Just a few cold days are enough to bring up demand and empty the storages quickly,鈥� M眉ller warned. Despite losing its former main fossil fuel trading partner Russia as a supplier earlier this year, Germany鈥檚 gas storages were about 99 percent filled by early November. The DWD explained that the long-term prognosis is less reliable than shorter forecasts and that, despite the expected trend for warm weather, some periods throughout winter could be even colder than during the reference period.

Economists from research institute ZEW also warned against complacency in light of full gas storages. 鈥淭he worst-case-scenario must not be forgotten,鈥� the institute , urging the government to take preliminary steps to avoid a 鈥渃ollapse鈥� of the country鈥檚 gas market due to a supply shortage. Saving gas would remain as important as ever, ZEW head Achim Wambach said. In case of a market breakdown, the state had to jump in and allocate gas volumes at fixed prices. 鈥淓ven though a market collapse is not just a theoretical possibility, the question of how it should be dealt with in practice is mostly overlooked,鈥� Wambach said. Plans that outline who receives what in a supply crisis should be made now to avoid chaotic reactions that could cause further economic damage. 鈥淚f companies assume they鈥檒l continue to receive gas as a priority customer at moderate prices, there鈥檚 little incentive to prepare. The continuously high consumption then increases the likelihood of a shortfall,鈥� he argued.